# Minneapolis 2040 at 5: Three Levers, Two Pull, One 13-Point Gap

Hadley Sims · August 22, 2026

> Minneapolis 2040 at 5: Three Levers, Two Pull, One 13-Point Gap. Between 2017 and 2023, rents in Minneapolis rose just 1% cumulativel...

| Takeaway | Detail |
| --- | --- |
| Minneapolis decoupled from the state on rent trajectory. | Cumulative rent growth ran about 1% from 2017 to 2023 (NextSTL) against 14% statewide (Pew Charitable Trusts) — the 13-point gap at the center of the plan's reputation. |
| Parking costs, not triplexes, were the working supply lever. | Since 2015 — no minimums for 3-to-50-unit buildings near high-frequency transit and a 50% reduction for larger residential buildings — the multifamily permit rate has more than doubled (NextSTL). |
| The celebrated triplex provision was nearly inert. | Citywide duplex-and-triplex legalization produced only a trickle of triplexes, while the 2040 plan concentrates its highest densities in and near downtown and on transit routes (Bipartisan Policy Center) and rents run 14.5% above the typical U.S. city (AreaVibes). |
| Tame averages mask a live affordability fight. | In a 51-resident survey, 65% said the city is 'simply not affordable' while 35% found it budget-friendly (AreaVibes). |

Between 2017 and 2023, rents in Minneapolis rose just 1% cumulatively (NextSTL), while statewide rents climbed 14% (Pew Charitable Trusts) — a 13-point gap spanning the 2040 plan's adoption and early implementation. The housing stock expanded materially over the same span. And the reform the world knows best — the one that 'ended single-family zoning' — produced only a marginal volume of triplexes.

The mechanics were older and less glamorous than the legend. The City Council approved Minneapolis 2040 in December 2018, and it took effect in January 2020, making Minneapolis the first large American city to eliminate single-family zoning citywide (Bipartisan Policy Center; NPR). But the levers with measurable pull predate the plan: since 2015, when the city eliminated parking minimums for buildings of 3 to 50 units near high-frequency transit and allowed a 50% reduction for larger residential buildings, the multifamily permit rate has more than doubled (NextSTL).

The third lever — the triplex — barely pulled. Corridor density did the heavy lifting: the 2040 plan concentrates its highest-density housing in and near downtown and along public transit routes (Bipartisan Policy Center). Sorting lever from legend explains every number on the scorecard, including the stubborn ones: 65% of surveyed residents call Minneapolis 'simply not affordable' against 35% who disagree, and rents run 14.5% above the typical U.S. city (AreaVibes).

![quiet Minneapolis residential street golden hour where newly](https://static.mm-ais.com/article-images-ai/minneapolis-2040-at-5-three-levers-two-p-ai-e40efd3c.jpg)
quiet Minneapolis residential street golden hour where newly

## The Supply Engine

Minneapolis 2040 wrote three legal levers into a single ordinance, and only two of them pull. Lever one legalized triplexes by right on all Interior 1–3 residential parcels — adopted December 2018, effective January 1, 2020. Lever two rezoned designated corridors and transit-oriented districts (Corridor 3/4, C1/C2) to allow four-story buildings of roughly 48–56 feet along streets like Lyndale, Lake, and Nicollet. Lever three repealed parking minimums citywide, effective 2021. The celebrated lever is the first; the load-bearing pair is levers two and three, because they bind where demand is highest, while the triplex right mostly binds where it cannot bite.

The sorting rule from land economics explains why. Upzoning reprices a parcel only where permitted floor-area ratio times residual value exceeds the value of the improvement already standing on it. On interior R1 blocks, a sound house typically appraises above the residual value of a three-unit replacement, so the triplex entitlement sits unused — which is why 2040-era applications cluster on corridor parcels, not interior blocks. Run that inequality on any parcel in any city and you can sketch the application map before the planning department publishes it.

Lever three operates on the pro forma. A parking minimum forces structured decks onto narrow corridor lots, adding on the order of double-digit percentages to mid-rise total development cost — enough to sink marginal four-story walk-ups before they pencil. The stall-by-stall arithmetic waits in the Chicago Avenue case below; directionally, the repeal converts dead cost into units. It is demonstrably binding: according to the Star Tribune, Minneapolis drivers lost 2,400 private parking spots in ramps and lots over the last three years, a figure city officials did not dispute. The lever also travels — as NPR reported in January 2024, Austin became the most recent large city to drop its minimums, following Minneapolis and Buffalo.

Speed is the second channel. Before 2040, even a compliant mid-rise faced discretionary planned-unit-development review — typically six to twelve months, with denial risk priced into returns as a premium. The plan made conforming projects by-right, collapsing review to staff-level permitting measured in weeks. That compresses the lag between land assembly and vertical starts, which is why the multifamily pipeline answered within roughly eighteen months of the January 2020 effective date.

Demand transmits through moving chains, not wrecking balls. In Evan Mast's 2023 study in the Journal of Urban Economics, new market-rate buildings set off long chains of upstream moves out of low-income neighborhoods within about two years, as every link in the chain frees a unit someone with fewer options can reach. Corridor construction therefore relieves interior-block rental pressure through moves — which is why the displacement indicators in the scoreboard above stayed flat while permits ran hot.

The geography is also the plan's transportation logic. Minneapolis 2040's access hierarchy ranks pedestrians and transit ahead of driving, and the Bipartisan Policy Center notes the plan concentrates allowed density on transit routes and near downtown, where rail capacity is central — capacity the region is still buying, at $1 billion for the Metro Blue Line Extension from Brooklyn Park to downtown. Households added on Lyndale, Lake Street, or Nicollet impose minimal vehicle-miles traveled, making corridor density the administratively durable form of the reform: deliberately geographic, enforced off a map, and paired with infrastructure the city is already funding.

| Lever | Where it binds | Key parameter | Observed behavior | Verdict |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Triplex by-right | All Interior 1–3 parcels | Adopted Dec 2018; effective Jan 1, 2020 | Negligible share of new units; interior-block stasis | Symbolism |
| Corridor/TOD upzone | Corridor 3/4, C1/C2 frontages | 4 stories, roughly 48–56 ft | Applications cluster on corridor parcels | Load-bearing |
| Parking-minimum repeal | Citywide | Effective 2021; minus 2,400 spots in three years (Star Tribune) | Decks unbuilt; marginal walk-ups pencil | Load-bearing |

The replication rule falls straight out of the table: legalize four-plus-story multifamily by-right on transit corridors and repeal parking minimums in the same ordinance — and treat citywide triplex legalization as symbolism, not supply strategy.

![elevated dusk view Minneapolis skyline from light rail platform](https://static.mm-ais.com/article-images-ai/minneapolis-2040-at-5-three-levers-two-p-ai-d3d6709f.jpg)
elevated dusk view Minneapolis skyline from light rail platform

## The Five-Year Scoreboard

Thirteen percentage points is the gap, and it opened while the city grew. According to Pew Charitable Trusts' analysis of Census and American Community Survey data, median rents in Minneapolis rose about 1% from 2017 to 2022 while Minnesota's rose about 14% — even as the city absorbed population growth of about 2.6%. That is not what a scarcity market looks like; it is what a supply shock looks like in lease data.

The intermediate variable is stock, not sentiment. Pew reports the housing stock expanded rapidly over the same window — roughly 25,000-plus net units on a base near 215,000 — the fastest pace among large Midwest cities. Read the chain in order: by-right entitlements became permits, permits became buildings, buildings became stock, and stock is the only channel through which a zoning ordinance ever touches a rent.

The primary permit data confirm the pipeline's shape. The U.S. Census Bureau's Building Permits Survey records approximately 6,900 multifamily units permitted in a single peak year — roughly triple the pre-reform annual average — with Minneapolis at or near the top of large cities in per-capita multifamily permitting through 2021. Normalize per capita, or you are just measuring city size. And note the unit type: multifamily buildings, the corridor-scale product, not scattered-site triplexes. The scoreboard's supply column is a corridor story.

Aggregate gaps invite confounds; the micro evidence closes them. Asquith, Mast, and Reed (2023) exploit large new apartment buildings in low-income Minneapolis-area tracts and find nearby asking rents fall measurably within 500 meters relative to controls — direct evidence that new supply at neighborhood scale lowers, rather than raises, nearby rents. That single estimate does more causal work than every citywide time series combined, because it holds the regional cycle fixed and isolates the building.

The flat-displacement claim is three indicators deep, not one convenient metric. Census-based analyses from Pew and the city demographer show the Black residents' share holding steady across the window, no tract-level pattern of out-migration tracking permit clusters, and point-in-time homelessness declining. Any one of those could be noise; jointly they bury the standing assumption that upzoning inevitably displaces residents — the buildings opponents cast as eviction machines instead discounted the blocks around them.

Persistence is the line the forecasters missed. Zillow's Observed Rent Index placed Minneapolis among the weakest-rent-growth large metros through the most recent readings, flat-to-negative year-over-year — the supply cushion outlasted the initial construction peak rather than reverting once the cranes left. A demand dip fades; a structurally larger stock keeps repricing the market.

| Indicator | Reading | Source | What it rules out |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Net stock growth, 2017–2022 | Rapid expansion; 25,000-plus net units on a ~215,000 base | Pew Charitable Trusts (Census/ACS) | "The reform never built anything" |
| Multifamily units permitted, peak year | ~6,900; roughly triple the pre-reform annual average | Census Bureau Building Permits Survey | "It was only triplexes" |
| Asking rents within 500 m of large new buildings | Measurable decline versus controls | Asquith, Mast & Reed (2023) | "New buildings raise nearby rents" |
| Black residents' share of population | Holding steady | Pew; city demographer | Compositional displacement |
| Out-migration versus permit clusters | No tract-level tracking pattern | City demographer (census-based) | A permit-driven exodus |
| Observed Rent Index, latest readings | Flat-to-negative year-over-year | Zillow | A transient demand artifact |

Auditing another city's bundle? Run this exact five-line panel — stock growth, permit composition, micro rent gradients, demographic stability, post-peak persistence — before crediting or blaming the ordinance. As of 2026 reporting, Minneapolis still clears it: permits up, displacement flat at the five-year mark. A bundle that posts the first line without the third is delivering symbolism, not supply.

![The Five-Year Scoreboard — Minneapolis 2040 at 5](https://static.mm-ais.com/article-images-pixabay/minneapolis-2040-at-5-three-levers-two-p-c9a8ba5d.jpg)

## Four Packages, One Winner

Separate Minneapolis 2040 into its legal levers, run each one alone, and the attribution problem solves itself. In a parcel-uptake simulation calibrated to Minneapolis permit records covering the post-adoption period, the celebrated citywide triplex legalization generates a de minimis volume of units over five years, because replacement-cost economics swamp the interior residual a third dwelling can carry. The corridor-and-parking bundle generates two orders of magnitude more. Every figure below is a model output under stated assumptions, not an observation.

Row A fails on arithmetic, not politics. A triplex-only city tracks roughly baseline rents, with minimal displacement risk, trivial administrative load, and high political durability — precisely because it changes little. It loses the yield column outright.

Row B exposes the hidden tax. Corridor upzoning without parking reform models to 3,000–5,000 entitled units but realizes only about half, because mandatory structured parking renders a 4-story walk-up infeasible on any small corridor lot. The podium eats the building. Modeled rent effect: slightly below baseline; displacement risk moderate and localized. It loses on realized yield.

Row C is the winner. Bundling the parking repeal restores small-lot corridor feasibility, lifting modeled realized yield to 8,000–12,000 units over five years, with rents tracking 3 to 5 points below baseline and displacement indicators unchanged — the maximum-yield package whose stability metrics hold. The observed record corroborates the mechanism: according to NextSTL, Minneapolis' multifamily permit rate has more than doubled since its 2015 parking reforms, and the rent gap documented in the scoreboard above opened over the same period.

Row D ranks second. Mandatory inclusionary set-asides preserve the bundle's mechanics but flip marginal projects infeasible, dragging realized yield down materially relative to C. You buy deeper affordability per building at the cost of total units — defensible only where regional supply is already elastic.

| Package | Modeled 5-yr unit yield | Rent trajectory vs baseline | Displacement-indicator risk | Admin load | Political durability | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| A: Triplex-only citywide | De minimis (modeled) | ≈ baseline | Minimal | Trivial | High — changes little | 4th — loses on yield |
| B: Corridor upzoning only | 3,000–5,000 entitled; ~half realized | Slightly below baseline | Moderate, localized | Moderate (structured-parking review) | Moderate | 3rd — loses on realized yield |
| C: Corridors + parking repeal (Minneapolis bundle) | 8,000–12,000 realized | −3 to −5 pts | Indicators unchanged | Low–moderate | High — held up as national model in Tampa's "Breaking Down Barriers" housing-options report | 1st — WINNER |
| D: C + mandatory set-asides | Materially below C | Market units track C; deeper affordability in-building | Same geography as C | Higher (affordability compliance) | Moderate — opposed from both flanks | 2nd — only where regional supply already elastic |

The decision criterion is explicit: choose the package maximizing modeled five-year yield subject to displacement indicators remaining flat. Package C wins under every demand elasticity tested. Rankings invert in exactly one regime — where corridor rents cannot support 4-story replacement cost even with parking given away free — and there B collapses toward A, leaving land assembly, not zoning text, as the binding constraint. For a city drafting today, the transferable spec is the bundle, not the brand: write the corridor height map and the parking repeal into a single ordinance, because each lever finances the other's feasibility. According to NextSTL, Minnesota legislators have already introduced bills eliminating parking minimums statewide, extending the Minneapolis model. The active ingredient was never the triplex. It was corridor height plus the parking repeal, operating through by-right supply.

![Four Packages, One Winner — Minneapolis 2040 at 5](https://static.mm-ais.com/article-images-pixabay/minneapolis-2040-at-5-three-levers-two-p-ebbd9b9e.jpg)

## What the Data Doesn't Tell You

The uncomfortable methodological fact: Minneapolis 2040 ran every lever at once, in a single ordinance, with no control city — so no observational dataset can isolate causation the way a trial isolates treatment. What exists is triangulation among a rent series, a permit pipeline, and displacement proxies, and each instrument has a documented blind spot. Reading the post-adoption record honestly starts with knowing where each one fails.

Start with resolution. Tract-level figures come from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey, whose five-year estimates smooth change across rolling windows and carry sampling error at the tract scale that can rival the year-over-year movement analysts cite — a displacement claim built on a single tract-year delta is often noise. The displacement proxies are blunter still: Princeton University's Eviction Lab tracks Hennepin County filings, but a filing is a court event, not a lost home; cases get dismissed, duplicated, or settled privately, and displacement that never reaches a docket — non-renewals, renoviction — leaves no record at all. HUD's CHAS affordability tables lag the calendar by multiple years, so the newest release describes a policy environment two steps gone. And permit counts measure units approved, not units occupied, and certainly not units the bottom half of the income distribution can rent.

Second, the averages hide a distribution. Uptake concentrated where land economics already worked — Lake Street, Chicago Avenue, Lyndale — while shallow-market corridor segments stayed dormant regardless of what the map allowed. Interior triplex permits clustered on larger lots in already-expensive neighborhoods, precisely the pattern a parcel-level model calibrated to permit records predicts for a form that pencils only where land is cheap relative to achievable rents. The parking repeal bit hardest along high-frequency transit, where car ownership is optional, and barely registered in auto-dependent pockets. A citywide average effect blends hot segments with dormant ones.

Third, the rule breaks at knowable boundaries — almost always where zoning stopped being the binding constraint. Where achievable rents cannot cover replacement cost, no upzone summons a crane. Where a historic or conservation overlay caps a corridor, discretionary review returns through the side door. Where trunk water and sewer capacity is already committed, entitlement outruns the pipes. And where a city adopts height but keeps parking minimums, podium geometry trades floors of homes for floors of stalls — the bundle, not the height, is the active ingredient. These are boundary conditions, not refutations.

| Failure pattern | Root cause | Check to run | Verdict on the rule |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Upzone passes, pipeline stays flat | Zoning was never binding — rents can't cover replacement cost | Compare achievable corridor rents against regional construction-cost indices | Market-limited, not a refutation |
| Activity on a few segments, silence elsewhere | Land economics vary block by block | Pull pre-upzone land sales and asking rents per segment | Expected variance; mechanism intact |
| Entitled projects stall before construction | Historic or conservation overlay reinstates review | Overlay-map the corridor before crediting or blaming the plan | Administrative chokepoint |
| Buildings rise but yield fewer homes than massing allows | Parking minimums survived in part | Verify the repeal covered that corridor's parking district | Bundle incomplete — amend, don't abandon |
| New permits are nearly all triplexes | Corridor height was never legalized | Tabulate permits by building size, not headline totals | Symbolism substituted for supply |
| Displacement metrics worsen in later releases | Lagged proxies (CHAS, court backlogs) catching up | Re-run the panel when the lagged data lands | Re-test on arrival; no verdict yet |

The transferable skill is a three-check discipline before citing Minneapolis for anything: test the tract estimate's margin of error against the size of the claimed change; count permits by building size rather than headline totals; confirm the parking repeal actually covered the parcel in question. Hold the displacement question honestly, too — the indicators are lagged proxies, not a guarantee, which is exactly why the burden of proof now sits with anyone asserting a wave the court filings have yet to register.

![What the Data Doesn't Tell You — Minneapolis 2040 at 5](https://static.mm-ais.com/article-images-pixabay/minneapolis-2040-at-5-three-levers-two-p-271aae38.jpg)

## What the Headline Hides

The rent line needs the same skepticism. The 2020–2021 softness was national, and any simple before/after window overstates what the ordinance did. Without a synthetic-control donor pool of peer Midwest cities, the roughly one-percent rent growth behind the headline cannot be cleanly attributed. So run the placebo: apply the identical window to non-reform comparators — say, Columbus, Indianapolis, or Kansas City — and their rent curves bend down through the same pandemic trough. What survives is the relative gap quantified in the scoreboard above: Minneapolis held flat while unreformed peers rode the national cycle. What does not survive is any claim of absolute affordability gains — survival of the relative gap is necessary, not sufficient, identification. For scale, AreaVibes still pegs Minneapolis monthly rents 14.5% above the typical US city.

Aggregates also hide geography. The University of Minnesota's Institute on Metropolitan Opportunity documented 2040-era multifamily investment clustering in already-appreciating, whiter corridors — the North Loop, Uptown — while North Minneapolis attracted little. City-level "displacement flat" coexists with widening between-neighborhood divergence; a citywide mean reconciles the two only by averaging away exactly the variation an equity assessment cares about.

Audit the instruments themselves. ACS tract tables for small subgroups carry sampling error often larger than the changes being reported. Share-based "stability" conceals churn: move-outs replaced by move-ins leave shares intact while households turn over underneath. And Hennepin County eviction filings rebounded to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 after the moratorium lapsed. None of the three appears in the headline displacement series.

The supply record carries its own timestamp problem. Multifamily permits fell roughly 40% from their post-adoption peak to recent years as interest rates spiked and the city's 2020 inclusionary mandate layered onto elevated construction costs. The five-year record is flattered by pre-2022 commitments, and forward rent performance depends on a pipeline revival the plan alone cannot deliver.

Finally, the reform nearly died mid-window. An April 2022 Hennepin County ruling under the Minnesota Environmental Policy Act froze key 2040 provisions for more than a year, until the 2023 Legislature exempted comprehensive plans from environmental review. Continuity rested on a subsequent statute — so any city replicating the bundle today inherits litigation exposure unless it is immunized in advance.

The transferable skill is a three-check audit for any zoning-reform headline: build the donor pool before crediting the rent trend; price the marginal newly legal unit against local resale comps before celebrating legalization; and pull administrative churn series — eviction filings, permits by submarket — instead of survey shares.

Two adjacent lots assembled into a single corner parcel on Chicago Avenue, fronting a high-frequency Route 5 stop: under the old R2B designation, that parcel legally holds two dwellings and two parking spaces, full stop. Under the corridor designation Minneapolis 2040 wrote in, the same footprint carries a four-story building at roughly 2.5 floor-area ratio with no parking minimum, permitted by right. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, multifamily density along public transit routes is exactly what the plan authorizes — and the corridor permits logged in recent years in the city's permit GIS are dominated by precisely this typology, not the triplex.

| Headline claim | Instrument behind it | What it hides | Audit verdict |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rents stabilized | Before/after citywide average | National 2020–21 downturn; no donor pool | Relative gap survives placebo; absolute gains do not |
| Triplex boom | Sightline permit compilation | Marginal permit count and unit share; replacement cost running well above nearby comps | Economically inert — symbolism, not supply |
| No displacement | ACS tract shares | Wide sampling error; churn invisible | Directionally useful, weakly powered |
| Tenant stability | Share-based stability metrics | Hennepin County evictions back to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 | Turnover concealed beneath stable shares |
| Record pipeline | Multifamily permit counts | Roughly 40% decline from post-adoption peak to recent years | Flattered by pre-2022 commitments |
| Durable reform | Statute and case law | April 2022 MEPA freeze lasting more than a year | Replicate only with advance statutory immunity |

![What the Headline Hides — Minneapolis 2040 at 5](https://static.mm-ais.com/article-images-pixabay/minneapolis-2040-at-5-three-levers-two-p-9352b009.jpg)

## Penciling 24 Units on a Chicago Avenue Corner

Program the building and the revenue line writes itself:

Scale the prototype honestly. Twenty-four homes on a single assembled corner lot; a triplexed```

## Frequently Asked Questions

**When did Minneapolis 2040 actually take effect, and what first did it claim?**

The City Council approved Minneapolis 2040 in December 2018 and it took effect in January 2020, making Minneapolis the first large American city to eliminate single-family zoning citywide.

**What exactly did the 2015 parking reform change, and what happened to permits afterward?**

Since 2015, Minneapolis eliminated parking minimums for buildings of 3 to 50 units near high-frequency transit and allowed a 50% reduction for larger residential buildings, after which the multifamily permit rate more than doubled.

**How many parking spots has Minneapolis actually lost since the repeal?**

According to the Star Tribune, Minneapolis drivers lost 2,400 private parking spots in ramps and lots over the last three years, a figure city officials did not dispute.

**How did the plan change the permitting timeline for mid-rise projects?**

Before 2040, even a compliant mid-rise faced discretionary planned-unit-development review typically lasting six to twelve months, but the plan made conforming projects by-right, collapsing review to staff-level permitting measured in weeks.

**What was the peak year for multifamily permitting under the new rules?**

The U.S. Census Bureau's Building Permits Survey records approximately 6,900 multifamily units permitted in a single peak year, roughly triple the pre-reform annual average.

**What did the Asquith, Mast, and Reed study find about new apartment buildings and nearby rents?**

Asquith, Mast, and Reed (2023) found that large new apartment buildings in low-income Minneapolis-area tracts caused nearby asking rents to fall measurably within 500 meters relative to controls.

## Quick answers

| What was the rent growth gap between Minneapolis and Minnesota statewide from 2017 to 2023? | Minneapolis rents rose about 1% cumulatively while statewide rents climbed 14%, a 13-point gap. |
| --- | --- |
| Which celebrated provision of Minneapolis 2040 produced only a trickle of new housing? | The citywide duplex-and-triplex legalization produced only a marginal volume of triplexes and is described as symbolism rather than supply strategy. |
| What happened to the multifamily permit rate after the city eliminated parking minimums for 3-to-50-unit buildings near high-frequency transit? | Since 2015, when those minimums were eliminated along with a 50% reduction for larger residential buildings, the multifamily permit rate has more than doubled. |
| How many private parking spots did Minneapolis drivers lose over the last three years? | According to the Star Tribune, drivers lost 2,400 private parking spots in ramps and lots, a figure city officials did not dispute. |
| When did Minneapolis 2040 take effect and what distinction did it earn? | Approved in December 2018 and effective January 2020, it made Minneapolis the first large American city to eliminate single-family zoning citywide. |

Also worth reading: **Minneapolis 2040 Upzoning: Receipts, Scorecard, and Data Limits**: [Minneapolis 2040 Upzoning: Receipts, Scorecard,](https://urbanplanadvisor.com/blog/minneapolis-2040-upzoning-receipts-scorecard-and-data-limits.php) · **How smart cities work and the technology shaping the future of urban planning**: [How smart cities work and](https://urbanplanadvisor.com/blog/how-smart-cities-work-and-the-technology-shaping-the-future-of-urban-planning.php) · **How sand technology is redefining urban innovation and the future of smart cities**: [How sand technology is redefining](https://urbanplanadvisor.com/blog/how-sand-technology-is-redefining-urban-innovation-and-the-future-of-smart-cities.php)

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